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Thursday, June 17, 2010

FSLR Upgrade to Outperform by Credit Suisse

- I alluded to FSLR as a speculative Buy back on June 3 although the timing was a bit early. I was getting alerts past couple of days in my model that FSLR could potentially move. Today, Credit Suisse was reported to have upgraded FSLR to outperform from hold.
-The technical picture of FSLR and underlying currents within the stock market agrees with Credit Suisse's upgrade, and if they are right on their fundamental call, I see FSLR going up to $155 after next earnings announcement scheduled July 29.
-FSLR, however, has come up from its recent low of $100.19 to current price at time of this post to $124.14. That's already a significant rise in very short time, so it would be difficult to put on a bullish trade at this very moment. I would look to buy FSLR under $120 with a stop/loss of $114 up until and before earnings announcement. Another good position would be selling the July 125/115 put spread for $3.80 or higher and selling the July 135/140 call spread for $1.10 or higher (collect $4.90 or higher on this slightly bullish spread). This position would make money if FSLR stock price closes between $120.2 and $139.80 with maximum gain of $4.90 between stock prices $125 and $135 and maximum loss of $5.10 if stock price stays below $120.1 by July 16. This trade assumes that the overall market is not going to fall below 105 in SPY level, volatility of FSLR will come in and the stock price of FSLR will trend up steadily to around $135 in the next 5 weeks.

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