Friday, July 30, 2010
Monday, July 26, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
- On July 12, FTC Issues Report on Reforming Debt Collection Litigation and Arbitration; Recommends Steps to Protect Consumers and Repair a Broken System (http://www.ftc.gov/opa/index.shtml).
Legislators pledge to fix state's 'broken' debt collection system (http://www.startribune.com/investigators/98380794.html) in Minnesota. Massachusetts Senate passes debt collection measure (http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2010/07/21/senate_passes_debt_collection_measure/). More and more states are likely to introduce legislation giving consumers more protection against debt collectors.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
- I could think of two reasons why SKX has shown relative weakness over the past few weeks. 1) Fund managers have been taking profits on high flying stocks and buying value stocks that have underperformed. Apple stock is the leading example of this, down over 10% since June 21, while SPY is down around 5%. 2) Investors are concerned about fundamentals of SKX and whether the momentum and buzz around "Shape-up" fitness shoes would disappoint expectations.
-Considering these two factors, technical analysis of SKX stock, and high implied volatility, I would recommend buying the Aug 35/30/25 butterfly for combined $1.20 or lower (this spread can be done at current bids/offers). This spread would make money if stock price falls to near $30 if fundamentals do not support a high stock price, but not lose much if stock price remains at current levels or rise slowly after earnings announcement.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
- Gold prices, as represented by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), looks as though it has topped for the short-term. The reverse relationship of GLD rising while overall markets falling seems to have broken down on 7/1. Although, GLD is down 1.86 to 116.64 while SPY is up 1.72 to 103.92, I would expect GLD to keep falling despite what overall market does.
- The P&F Trend indicators has changed to -1, and Estimated Future Volatility has been rising. I also looked at the weekly chart on GLD from stockscharts http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p88660858515 and I see MACD divergence, where GLD prices hit new highs last month, but the MACD indicator failed to do so & MACD has crossed below it's moving average last week.
- August options on GLD are cheap with implied volatility at 22, while my EFV is at 27.25 as of Friday's close. I expect GLD to decline to test its MA support around 114.5 - 115.25, and fall at a quicker pace should this support area fail. First price target is 105 within the next 6 weeks.
-I recommend buying the August 115/105 put spread for $2.13 or better, GLD is now $116.70.