VIX Rising to 20.83 in the Next 2 Weeks?

 

As you can see in the chart of VIX above, the P&F Trend Indicator (from MetaStock) that I use for VIX turned positive once again as of VIX closing price of October 19, 2012.  I look at this indicator because it turns positive so infrequently when it comes to VIX.  Last time P&F Trend Indicator turned positive was on May 4, 2012.  At that time, I wrote a research piece titled "VIX Rising to 24.6 Before May VIX Settlement?" in my blog.  In fact, VIX rose from 19.16 on May 4th to 21.97 the last trading day of VIX May expiration.  VIX continued to rise as high as 25.1 over the subsequent few trading days.

The table below shows the instances when VIX was under 25 and P&F Trend Indicator turned positive over the past 12 years.

Unlike in my May 4th post, I added a calculation of averages excluding what I considered outliers (highlighted in green & yellow) to come up with average or expected Max % Gain & Max % Loss of VIX looking 10 trading days forward.  Based on the average numbers, VIX could be expected to rise as high as 20.83 or fall to as low as 16.04 over the next two weeks.  Furthermore, using these VIX ranges, VXX then could be expected to trade within 40.6 to the upside or 33.4 over the next two weeks.  VXX ranges are calculated (roughly) with assumptions about how it has moved in the past relative to VIX movements.

I understand that trying to calculate "Expected" or "Average" numbers with such few data samples is not quantitatively reliable.  Nevertheless, it is a worthwhile exercise to carry out when formulating a trading strategy based on scenarios of how VIX may be expected to move.  Perhaps, buying the VXX November 35/38 call spread could be a good trade.