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Wednesday, April 4, 2012
VIX Futures Trying to Break Up
1) On 3/28, VIX Futures rose as high as 19.2 before DIA touched its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) support and bounced up causing VIX Futures to plunge back to 17.65.
2) On 3/29, VIX Futures hit a high of 18.8 before SPY touched its 20-day EMA support and bounced up, causing again VIX Futures to plunge back to close at 17.3. 3) Finally, today 4/4, VIX Futures rose as high as 18.9 before QQQ touched its 20-day EMA support and bounced up, causing VIX Futures to drop a 3rd time to close at 17.9.
I think it's safe to say that volatility will have a hard time breaking upward until the 20-day EMA is broken on all 3 ETFs, DIA, SPY, & QQQ. Yet, Fair Volatility Estimate Indicator has been rising slowly but steadily. It's hard to predict what will happen in the future, but should the 20-day EMA supports break, one could expect a quicker rise in volatility. As of 4/4, FVE's value is 16.84 compared to VIX closing value of 16.44. FVE for VIX Futures was at 17.97, while the April VIX Futures closed at 17.9.