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Monday, March 14, 2011

Implied Volatility Still Undervalued

- Fair Volatility Estimate indicator's value is at 20 in early morning trade with SPY at 129.88. I'm surprised with all that's happening in this world that SPY implied volatility remains below FVE indicator's value. I mean, at close on Friday 3/11, FVE indicator's value was 19.55, while SPY implied volatility mean index was 17.5%.

- Looking at the trendlines, SPY value of 129-129.5 is an area of potential support, and in a bull market, anytime VIX goes above 20 it would be an opportunity to sell. However, even if SPY were to get support here, I would not look to sell volatility as long as SPY implied volatility mean index remains below FVE indicator's value.

- Simply put, the risk vs. reward is not there yet to sell options.

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