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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Apologize for the Absence.

- Sorry for lack of updates past 4 weeks. I have been quite busy with other matters but I should have more free time now to post more frequently. As for my simulation, to maintain total integrity, since there were no updates since the last trade recommendation, I assumed the most recent position closed on Feb expiration, which would result in a 2.83 loss! Ouch!

- Looking forward, there are many uncertain factors affecting the markets. This is reflected in volatility having spiked the past 2 days with SPY dropping sharply the past 2 days. Mean Implied Volatility has jumped to 17.90% for SPY options. Fair Volatility Indicator has also spiked, but it's value is at 16.07. The difference in the two is not significant enough for me to say SPY options are overvalued.

- I would pay attention to the bond markets, since bond prices have been crushed the past 6 months. If bond prices start to find a bottom, the bull market in stocks could take a pause.

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