I'm going to present my thoughts that may be considered way out there...
Complexity
theory took hold in economics in the 90s, especially the theory about
increasing marginal value or utility(IMV), which turned conventional
wisdom of decreasing marginal value upside down. In short, dominate
(info, money, power, influence,etc) and set the standards and one could
reap ever greater rewards.
This paradigm shift (IMV) and its
ultra competitive underpinnings spread to every thread of the fabric of
society at the micro level, which in turn set the unintended norm for
the macro level--a vicious cycle not only acceptance of, but reverence
for those that reaped the highest rewards without questioning whether or
if any real value was created and/or how much of the social fabric was
destroyed in the process. Societies' value (hence valuation) systems
broke down. In fact, this outcome is exactly what complexity theory
models also predicted.
Since the near catastrophic end-game that
was the financial/economic crisis of 2008-09, I believe another paradigm
has been gaining traction in both the micro and macro levels--that is
the theory of a holographic universe. Basically, everything is
connected and everything is part of a greater whole. I'm not just
pushing some new age, spiritual nonsense. I see it in every scientific
discipline and research, in global economic and political policies, in
the corporate world, in entertainment, etc.
I do not know what
would be the end results of this new paradigm shift, but I have to
believe it would be more positive and constructive then IMV. I'm
talking about 10-20 year bull market here... Yes, my outlook is
far-fetched, but why not have a vision?
How does one monetize this vista?
Sell
assets that have risen due to fear. That would be gold, long-term
bonds, anytime VIX spikes. Buy portfolio of assets that are in the
business of strengthening connections (human, corporate), perhaps
GOOG(YouTube), FB, IACI(match.com), EBAY, media & content firms, crowd
funding, etc. Avoid firms that have traditionally try to profit from
transferring costs to society, just to name a few off the top of my
head...
As a side note...ever wonder why "Gangnam Style", song and music video by PSY, a mid-30s, out-of-shape Korean rapper, shattered the record for the most watched You Tube video (over 1.3 BILLION+ views) and became a global phenomenon? PSY said it himself. His music, dance, and video focuses on participation and not exhibition. They allow people to laugh and connect and be in the moment as the actors themselves. This is completely different than entertainment from just a few years ago when people felt disconnected and perhaps even empty admiring or being envious of the so called "stars".
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: The information found on this site is meant for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site should be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell derivatives or securities or to trade any particular strategy. Trading of derivatives or securities has large potential risk and you must be aware of and accept all the risks. Past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve performance results similar to those discussed on this website. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations and do not represent actual trading.
No comments:
Post a Comment